据 Marketresearch 预测,2022 年山地自行车市场价值 66 亿美元,预计 2023 年至 2029 年的总收入将以 12% 的复合年增长率增长,到 2029 年将达到近 138.6 亿美元。
其中,电动山地自行车是山地自行车市场的重要组成部分。电助力的模式能为骑手提供动力,减缓骑手骑行时的疲劳。它还能提供更多选择,自己决定是否需要开启助力模式,因此可以应对更多的地形和更复杂的环境,因此电动山地自行车占据市场比例也越来越大。

北美是山地自行车增长最快的地区,2022 年北美占据山地自行车市场 34% 的份额,尤其是北美对户外运动的热爱,山地骑行成了年轻一代的最受欢迎的娱乐活动,因此山地自行车的市场需求一直很庞大,电助力车辆进入市场后对普通车型的替换率也居于高位,如今疫情的影响逐渐降低,消费者的娱乐活动和健康意识的提高也将带动市场的进一步增长。

疫情几年自行车价格的上涨大家都有目共睹,车辆的价格随着需求的飞速扩张不断攀升,自行车协会研究发现,自 2019 年以来,自行车的平均销售价格上涨了 26%。美国彭博社 2021 的一份报告称从年初到3月,自行车的平均价格上涨了27%。Specialized 的高端产品系列 S-Works ,在 2009 年售价就高达 5499 英镑,以 4% 的通货膨胀率计算现在价格应在 8800 英镑,但实际上现在的标价为 11500 英镑,而且仅去年一年就上涨了 1000 英镑,近几年山地自行车的价格走势呈总体上升趋势,但受大环境影响有一定变化,统计近年来的价格变化对未来趋势的判断也很有意义。(以北美为例)

山地自行车疫情前后价格变化趋势
高端自行车市场成了各厂商的必争之地,其中山地自行车的以其高专业性,高性能要求在高端市场狂卷,北美市场价格涨幅明显,从 2017 年到 2023 年翻了近三倍。下表以已出售的电动山地自行车的平均价格统计。

从 2016 年 6 月到 2020 年 3 月,山地自行车的平均价格以每年约 3% 的速度稳步增长。加拿大的波动幅度较大,有着显著的季节性变化,每年 3 月或 4 月左右价格会达到低点,这是风俗所致,加上冬天气温较低,户外出行少所以骑自行车的次数也更少。从图中可以看出 2020 年 3 月之后价格急剧上涨,峰值高出 45% 至 55%,2022 年趋于平稳,年底呈明显下降趋势,不过进入 2023 年后价格回升,也离不开市场环境逐渐平稳的原因。

搜索量变化
谷歌的搜索趋势也在一定程度上反映了市场的变化,以品牌 pinkbike 为例,在美国与加拿大,在搜索引擎上的搜索次数基本与山地自行车的变化相一致,加拿大的季节性依然明显,不过自 2021 年以来,搜索次数已降至疫情前的水平,但自行车价格仍然居高不下。

山地车价格峰值后下降,但仍处于高位
如果将通货膨胀的影响去除查看近五年的价格变化,我们发现直到 2020 年 3 月,如果忽略了加拿大的季节性变化,疫情期间的变动大概高出约 20% 至 25%,22 年底加拿大的价格仍接近历史最高水平,但很快就是冬季价格大下降,不过比起疫情前的价格仍处于高位。

新车价格上涨,旧车价格下降
以同一车型销售的山地车为例,新自行车价格在疫情之前在 4,250 美元左右,然后开始上涨,涨幅超 20% 以上,超过了 5000 美元,不过行业低端产品整体平均价格水平上涨幅度不大,大幅度的上涨更有可能是生产商生产的专业高端型自行车带来的。疫情间也曾出现市场短缺的情况,一定程度上助推了价格的上涨。

旧自行车的价格从2017年逐渐大幅下降,但在 2020 年和 2021 年间价格保持平稳,自行车在 2021 年的价值比其预计价格高出近 50%,2022 年的价格有所回落,但仍比预测高出约 40%。
市场新动力
山地自行车的市场还有很多新动力的加入,比如女性山地车手的数量在增加,许多领先的山地车制造商也加大了女性自行车的开发力度,女性和儿童市场稳步增加。随着人们对安全、健身、道德和环保意识的增强,山地自行车正在从男性主导的运动转变为女性和儿童追求的休闲活动。

山地自行车的主要用途分为休闲与竞赛,休闲市场每年都在扩大,生活方式的改变和可支配收入的增加导致山地自行车旅游收入增加。澳大利亚的政府机构都在推动山地自行车旅游。此外,人们越来越意识到骑自行车对健康有益,这将进一步增加对山地自行车的需求。

疫情期间山地自行车的休闲市场受到影响发展缓慢,供应链中断和居家政策降低了北美对山地自行车的需求,放开后随着旅游业大规模的复苏,加上开拓的新市场潜力十足,市场的发展仍然动力满满,后劲十足。
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